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COMMISSIONERS' COURT AGENDA REQUEST
PLEASE FURNISH ONE ORIGINAL AND ONE COPY OF THIS
REQUEST AND DOCUMENTS TO BE REVIEWED BY THE COURT.
MADE BY: Mindy L. Williams
MEETING DATE: November 9, 2009
OFFICE: County Treasurer
TIME PREFERRED: Open
SUBJECT: (PLEASE BE SPECIFIC) Acknowledge receipt of Quarterly Investment
report from Patterson and Associates for quarter ending 09-30-09.
EXECUTIVE SESSION REQUESTED: (PLEASE STATE REASON)
NAME OF PERSON ADDRESSING THE COURT: Mindy L. Williams
ESTIMATED LENGTH OF PRESENTATION: 2 minutes
IF PERSONNEL MATTER -NAME OF EMPLOYEE:
Time for submitting this request for Court to assure that the matter is posted in
accordance with Title 5, Chapter 551 and 552, Government Code, is as follows:
Meeting scheduled for Mondays:
THIS REQUEST RECEIVED BY:
THIS REQUEST RECEIVED ON:
5:00 P.M. previous Tuesday.

All Agenda Requests will be screened by the County Judge's Office to determine if adequate
information has been prepared for the Court's formal consideration and action at time of Court
Meetings. Your cooperation will be appreciated and contribute towards your request being
addressed at the earliest opportunity. See Agenda Request Rules Adopted by Commissioners'
Court.
PATTERSON d, ASSOCIATES
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3tJVE3TMENT PFsSgFE~SiQNALS
Quarterly Economic Report - 3rd Quarter 2009
Proceeding with Great Caution..... but on Crutches
~. > ~, ~
BY:
The recession may be technically over, as announced by Chairman Bernanke in September, but the third
quarter certainly did not bring us into recovery mode and the fourth may or may not. Growth remains
illusive and most probably will for several quarters. Every force for growth has at least one counter-force
creating stutter-steps for the stock markets and continuing uncertainty for bonds thereby keeping rates low.
The balance and relative strength between these forces will determine whether we sec the "less worse"
situation continuing' or a dreaded double dip. The green shoots that starting appearing in spring are,
unfortunately, still just shoots. No buds yet.
Cyclical drags are lessening and financial conditions are improving (very slowly) but payrolls and earnings
are not giving the needed bottom line boost. Exports are growing but remain significantly below imports.
Manufacturing has started to improve with lower inventory levels but is not likely to force significant
hiring anytime soon. And, although industrial capacity is down one-third, business is using its cash for
technology not capital needs. (In fact, many economists agree that capital spending may not be a growth
catalyst unti12011.)
The private sector did create enough real income to sustain the economy this quarter on a GDP basis but
not without fiscal crutches. One of best known and most popular growth crutch was `cash for ciunkers'
which provided a temporary boost in auto sales to the 14 million unit range (from 9.Smiliion) but will likely
have little lasting effect. In fact, the program may have a more lasting effect by reducing next year's sales
and increasing household debt levels because of new auto loans.
The $8,000 tax credit for first time home owners was another crutch which may have helped temporarily
increase the barely breathing housing sector. Housing is still so weak that if this program is not extended
before its end-date (10/31/09) it might signal another return to major weakness. Sales of existing homes
1~ave dropped markedly and new home sales are barely positive. A troubling indicator of the sector remains
the "time to sale after completion" which remains at 12.9 months. A secondary effect of this sector
morbidity is the impact it has on labor mobility. Workers will not be able to move as easily to take a new
job as sectors begin to improve.
A third crutch tangentially supporting growth has been the Fed's continuing purchase of mortgage backed
securities planed through 1Q'10. It became incumbent upon the Fed to be a buyer of MBS with the
fmancial melt-down and the chronic mortgage delinquencies which changed market views of MBS risk. A
positive impact of this program was to force the Fed to continue the purchases although it has signaled a
preference for shorter term securities -thereby reducing the riskier securities in the marketplace. This Fed
action, which will include purchases up to $1.25T, has made the current low rates temporarily acceptable to
the markets which will keep rates low across the curve (thereby helping mortgage buyers). When this
program does start to slow in 2010, its effect will be felt in rising longer rates as the. market insists on return
for risk. After such a downturn, it will take years before the market will consume mortgage risk as a
commodity again.
Naturally one of the strongest crutches has been the zero fed funds rate which keeps short rates low for
banks and consumers. The FOMC retained its policy by confirming in September that "economic
conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of Fed Funds rate for an extended period." The
bond market is confirming the weakness by slowing sinking rates. Bonds are indicating that the recovery
has a long way to go.
Let's Be Real (Real Spending and Real Income):
The identities of the major factors which dictate the fate
of growth have not changed in the past quarter:
employment, housing, manufacturing and the
consumer. They are the same factors weighing on the
bond market. It took a long time to get to this position
and will take as long, if not longer, to recover.
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Unemployment hit 9.8% in September. Jobs have fallen for 24 consecutive months. This has to affect the
shape of the recovery. Claims, though slowly decreasing since March 2009, remain at record levels.
Claims aze down, but is it because many benefits have expired? If claims were extended we might see a
jump of over 500,000 in claims. For the first time the time it takes fired employees to fmd new jobs is
longer than the duration of their standard unemployment benefits. The average duration of unemployment
is now 26.2 weeks versus the 26 week normal benefit period. Congress has extended benefits twice: once
in July 2008 and then as part of the February stimulus bill. Currently unemployed are eligible for 46 weeks
of benefits and 59 weeks in states where unemployment rates top 6%.
In addition, many economists believe the revisions which will have to be made in the 1 Q may take
unemployment levels up 800,000 to 1 million. If the data has been this far off for months, we are probably
looking a seriously weaker employment picture than currently touted. The major layoffs have stopped but
small business is not even accurately captured by the data. They are not hiring. Auto workers
improvements may have been temporary and tied to the clunker deal. The Christmas season will tell the
tale of the 4Q -but it is by no means a pleasant outlook to envision.
Holiday cheer is unlikely because job losses translate directly into consumer confidence and willingness to
consume. Personal wealth has grown $2T the last 2 quarters but we are still 19% off the peak in personal
wealth and without that peak and with continuing job losses the consumer will not return. Surveys showing
consumer sentiment have risen dramatically to 73.5 from 65.7 within the quarter but the details show that
consumers aze more optimistic about the national economy than their own situation. That keeps the
consumer hunkered down -hopefully not through Christmas but... have you noticed Christmas decoration
are already out -and on sale!
Business activity: Manufacturing fell 15% from 12/07 to 6/09 erasing 6 years of gains, but, factory output
is beginning to increase slowly (1.4% in July and .6% in August). The ever volatile durables indicator
obscured a glacially slow upwazd trend because Boeing's new orders fell from 44 to 37 -but then again no
orders were cancelled. This picture ignores small business however which still has extreme difficulty
accessing credit. Healthcare mandates will further hurt small business employment and growth with the
trade-off of insurance costs versus long-term hiring.
Fundamentally if there is not a cause for optimism there certainly is cause for cautious optimism. The trend
is up but the trend line will be long and will probably require even more crutches before this economy can
walk on its own. The economic scars from years of abuse will most likely delay and defy the recovery. The
chronic rate of mortgage delinquencies, the fear of unknown healthcare costs, the federal deficits which
could weigh the US down for 10 years and the newly learned caution on the part of consumers are just
starting to scab, over and everyone knows that is not a pretty process. Until more progress is made rates
will stay low especially in the short term. But the optimist knows -rates can not get much lower! !
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